Timeline of the future in forecasts

This timeline of the future in forecasts is a timeline of credible forecasts of near-future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment.
Forecasting informs the planning and policy making processes within all governments and commercial organisations. Forecasts may be either qualitative extrapolations from a current state or quantitative output from models or simulations based on historical data and trends.
Forecasts are published by:

• research and statistics departments within governments and leading commercial companies in a given field.
• NGOs, think tanks and international organisations.
• professional organisations and their associations and governing bodies.
• academic bodies.

In addition, leading experts in a particular field develop and publish their own individual forecasts, and notable thinkers called futurists formulate independent visions of the future.
Forecasting is obviously not an exact science, and different experts may legitimately forecast different dates for the same event, because they use different models or assumptions. This timeline is organised by topic, allowing different forecasts of the same event to be compared side by side. Although the forecasts in this timeline are produced by professionals, no judgement is made as to their accuracy.

Contents [hide] 1 History 2 List of future events (structured by topic) 2.1 Artificial intelligence and robotics 2.2 Biology and medicine 2.3 Communications 2.4 Computing 2.5 Culture and leisure 2.6 Demographics 2.7 Energy 2.8 Environment 2.9 Nanotechnology 2.10 Politics and economics 2.11 Transportation 2.12 Space 3 Top 12 areas for innovation through 2025 4 See also 5 References 6 Further reading 7 External links

[edit] History

As far back as the nineteenth century, scholars and scientists made predictions about the future. Lord Kelvin, "One Heck of a Prognosticator, president of the Royal Society in the 1890s, and disbeliever in virtually every scientific discovery," claimed that “Radio has no future,” “I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning,” and “X-rays will prove to be a hoax;” Orville Wright, in 1908 claimed that “No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris;” and Irving Thalberg, MGM movie producer, asserted in 1927 that “Novelty is always welcome, but talking pictures are just a fad.”^[1] Thus, making forecasts of the future's timeline has a historic basis in which many of the predictions by even experts have proven inaccurate
READ MORE AND APPLY.

[edit] List of future events (structured by topic)

[edit] Artificial intelligence and robotics

• Robots capable of manual labour tasks--
  • 2015–2020 – every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007^[2]
  • 2018 – robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007^[2]
  • 2022 – intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations – TechCast^[3]
  • 2030 – robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain^[4]
  • 2034 – robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot, 2004^[5]
• Military robots
  • 2015 – one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots – US Department of Defense, 2006^[6]
  • 2035 – first completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation – US Department of Defense, 2006^[6]

• Developments related to robotics from the Japan NISTEP ^[7] 2030 report :
  • 2013-2014 – agricultural robots (AgRobots^[8], ^[9]).
  • 2013–2017 – robots that care for the elderly
  • 2017 – medical robots performing low-invasive surgery
  • 2017–2019 – household robots with full use.
  • 2019–2021 – Nanorobots
  • 2021–2022 – Transhumanism

• Artificial intelligence
  • 2019 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of the human brain – Ray Kurzweil^[10]
  • 2020 – Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
  • 2045 – The Singularity (creation of the first ultraintelligent machine) occurs – Ray Kurzweil^[12]
  • 2050 – computer costing a few hundred pounds will have the capacity of the human mind – Hans Moravec^[13]
  • 2055 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of all human brains on Earth – Ray Kurzweil^[10]

[edit] Biology and medicine

• Visual prosthetics
  • 2011 – digital devices with implantable parts (Joseph Reger, Fujitsu-Siemens Technology Director, 2007,^[14])
• Use of animal organs for transplantation (xenotransplantation)
  • 2010 – practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source)
• Regenerative medicine
  • Widespread use for most tissues and organs – 2020 (Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine)^[15]
  • 2014–2024 – (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) – comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice^[16]
• Cloning of dinosaurs
  • 2023 – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
• Reverse engineering of human brain
  • 2025 – Ray Kurzweil, 2005^[17]

[edit] Communications

• All communications are IP-based
  • 2014 – Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004^[18]

[edit] Computing

• 10 petaFLOPS supercomputer (the amount required to simulate the human brain according to Kurzweil)
  • 2010 – NEC, Tokyo Institute of Technology^[19]
  • 2012 – Riken^[20]
• 1 zettaFLOPS supercomputer
  • 2032 – University of Notre Dame^[21]
• User interface
  • 2013 – voice control replace keyboard/mouse interface for 30% of routine tasks – TechCast^[3]

[edit] Culture and leisure

• Entertainment channels
  • 2010 – 30% by value of U.S. music, movies, games, and other entertainment is sold online – TechCast^[3]
• Virtual reality
  • 2025 – full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
  • 2030 – virtual reality allows any type of interaction with anyone, regardless of physical proximity – Ray Kurzweil^[10]
• Sport
  • 2050 – a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots can win against the human world soccer champion team – RoboCup, 1997^[22]

[edit] Demographics

• World population exceeds 7 billion
  • 2013 – U.S. Census Bureau^[23]
  • 2013 – United Nations^[24]
• World population exceeds 8 billion
  • 2026 – U.S. Census Bureau^[23]
  • 2028 – United Nations^[24]
• World population exceeds 9 billion
  • 2043 – U.S. Census Bureau^[23]
  • 2054 – United Nations^[24]
• World population exceeds 10 billion
  • 2183 – United Nations^[24]
• Other demographic milestones
  • 2020 – world average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 70 years – World Resources Institute^[25]
  • 2030 – number of people aged 65 or older exceeds 1 billion – Ray Hammond^[26]
  • 2030 – new-born child in developed country has life expectancy of 130 years – Ray Hammond^[26]
  • 2045 – world average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 75 years – World Resources Institute^[25]

[edit] Energy

• Peak oil – global oil production peaks
  • 2010 – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas^[27]
  • 2011 – Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre^[28]
  • 2013 – French government report^[29]
• Other energy milestones
  • 2020 – U.S. carbon emission market exceeds $1 trillion – New Carbon Finance^[30]
  • 2023 – alternatives to carbon-based fuels provide 30% of all energy used worldwide – TechCast^[3]

[edit] Environment

• Arctic shrinkage – arctic ice-free in summer
  • 2013 – Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, U. S. Naval Postgraduate School^[31]
  • 2040 – National Center for Atmospheric Research^[32]
• Arctic shrinkage – arctic ice-free all year
  • 2020 – Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Center^[33]
• Other environmental milestones
  • 2098 – coral cover on Great Barrier Reef drops below 10% – Dr Eric Wolanski, James Cook University^[34]

[edit] Nanotechnology

• Nanomachines in commercial use
  • 2019 – nanotechnology is used in 30% of commercial products – TechCast^[3]
  • 2020 – nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton. US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004
• Universal replicator is developed
  • 2040 – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]

[edit] Politics and economics

• World economic growth
  • 2015 - Brazil becomes the world's fifth largest economy, surpassing France, UK and Italy - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ^[35]
  • 2016 – China's GDP exceeds that of Japan – National Intelligence Council^[36]
  • 2025 – one billion dollar-millionaires worldwide – James Canton, The Extreme Future^[37]
  • 2032 – India's GDP exceeds that of Japan – National Intelligence Council^[36]
  • 2041 – China's GDP exceeds that of US – Goldman Sachs,^[38] Price Waterhouse Coopers^[39]

[edit] Transportation

• Hybrid vehicles
  • 2013 – hybrid powered cars make up 30% of the new car market – TechCast^[3]
• Self-driving cars
  • 2030 – all cars travelling on major roads under control of satellite and roadside control systems – Ray Hammond^[26]

[edit] Space

• Asteroid mining
  • 2024 – Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004^[40]
• Human landing on Mars
  • 2020 – MIT's Aeronautics and Astronautics department, 2005^[41][42]
  • 2021 – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
  • 2025 – a permanent Mars colony, 4Frontiers, 2005^[43]
  • 2030 – TechCast^[3]
• Near light speed travel
  • 2095 – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
• Return to the Moon
  • 2015 – Russian plans – Energia Corporation (2006)^[44]
  • 2020 – NASA plans first return to the Moon and moon colony no later than 2020 (2006)^[45]
  • 2024 – Chinese plans (2006)^[46]
• Space elevator
  • 2020 – Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004^[47]
• Space tourism and private spaceflight
  • 2011 – space flights become available to the public – Arthur C. Clarke^[11]
  • 2013 – "space cruiser” takes a group of tourists outside of the Earth’s atmosphere – TechCast^[3]
  • 2024 – "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004^[48]
• Unmanned mission returns samples from Mars
  • 2020 – NASA^[49]

[edit] Top 12 areas for innovation through 2025

This list is part of research and consulting firm Social Technologies technology foresight project, published as an press release in 2007.^[50]

• Personalized medicine
  • creation of an individual’s genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
  • correlation of specific genes and proteins with specific cancers, Alzheimer’s, heart disease, and diabetes, which will allow both ** physicians and patients to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate, if not cure, DNA-based health challenges development of pharmaceuticals that treat gene-based diseases, replacing surgeries and chemotherapy

• Distributed energy
  • advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales
  • new power systems with source-switching flexibility

• Pervasive computing
  • very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities (the worldwide $100 computer)
  • the Semantic Web, enabled by Web data that automatically self-organizes based on its content, allowing search tools or software agents to identify the actual relevance of Web pages—not just find keywords on them
  • intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality

• Nanomaterials
  • the function of nanomaterials will move from “passive” to “active” with the integration of nanoscale valves, switches, pumps, motors, and other components.

• Biomarkers for health
  • individualized, private, and self-administered diagnostics for multiple physical parameters such as blood sugar, urine, C-reactive proteins, HDL, and LDL, as well as home diagnostic kits that detect early signs of diabetes, heart disease, and types of cancers
  • personalized exercise equipment and regimens that deliver customized benefits (for weight control, blood pressure, blood sugar, etc.)
  • advanced CAT scans, MRIs, and brain scans to identify disorders earlier and more accurately at less cost

• Biofuels
  • high-energy (as measured in British thermal units, or Btu) blends of gasoline and diesel with biofuels (beyond the ethanol blends known today)
  • biomass production of a methanol that can be used as a fuel for fuel cells
  • new discoveries in plant genetics and biotechnologies specifically for energy content

• Advanced manufacturing
  • advanced computer-aided design and control
  • multiple variable and inexpensive sensors linked with computers
  • expert systems and advanced pattern-recognition software for very tight quality control

• Universal water
  • ultra-fine filters (probably from nanotechnology)
  • new energy sources for desalination and purification, including hybrid systems that combine conventional and alternative power—especially solar power
  • smart water-use technologies for agriculture and industry

• Carbon management
  • effective “measure, monitor, and verify” systems
  • affordable and effective carbon capture and storage technologies and systems for coal-burning power plants
  • low to zero emission controls for transportation

• Engineered agriculture
  • identification of specific genomes for desired growing and use qualities
  • crop-produced pharmaceuticals and chemical feedstocks
  • crops designed specifically for energy content and conversion

• Security and tracking
  • completely autonomous security-camera systems with algorithms able to correctly interpret and identify all manner of human behavior
  • multiple integrated sensors (including remote sensing)
  • radio frequency (RF) tags for people and valuables

• Advanced transportation
  • organized and coordinated personal transportation through wireless computer networks, information systems, and Internet access
  • onboard sensors and computers for smart vehicles